Monthly Archives: January 2004
The Dean Effect
Things look pretty bad for Howard Dean right now. John Kerry has won primaries in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and it begins to look as though there could be a possible Kerry-Edwards ticket in November. Howard Dean may have burned himself out in the fight against Gephart in Iowa, and with his own unfortunate words about Southerners who drive pickups with the Confederate Flag on them, the scream which the media was shocked by and distorted (I thought it was funny) by omitting any facts about the noise of the crowd blocked by the Governor’s one-was microphone. (The Bush friendly media really don’t like Dean or anyone who questions their comfortable world view.)
Whatever the results are in November, Dean has made Americans finally wake up to the fact that the Bushies didn’t know as much as they insisted they did about Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction; that the Bushies took us and others into a totally unnecessary war for all the wrong reasons, and they have carelessly created a huge debt burden for future generations to shoulder without having much visible effect on the economy.
Iraqi Blogs
I’ve been reading Healing Iraq and realize just how uninformed we are here in the USA by our press and media. It’s depressing to think that there may well be a civil war in Iraq after July 1 because of the competing power grabs by the presently strongest factions, the Shia and the Kurds, and the resentment of other groups at the current attempts to manipulate the CPA. The comment posted January 14 is revealing, at least to me, in that it shows how much many Sunnis were willing to turn over their country and did not resist the invasion because they too suffered under Saddam and wanted the dictator gone. Add to that our apparent inability to take advantage of the opportunity given by the lack of resistance to interact with tribal leaders and gain their cooperation, and our blunders in the dismissal of the Iraqi Army and all the government workers, and what we see now is a recipe for division and possible eventual civil war, not a stable, democratic example for the rest of the Middle East to follow. Depressing.
Another point of view on Al-Sistani, the Shiite ayatollah who has caused so much controversy lately in the entry of January 15 on Iraq At A Glance. Our press tends to look at such figures as monolithic in their influence over an entire region, but they only control the crowd of less well educated which capture the photo headlines.
For balance to blogs like Baghdad Burning , and Where’s Raed? have a look at Iraq & Iraqis . When you read these, you get an idea of the variety of opinion in Iraq itself which should give Americans particularly a better perspective on what is really happening. Don’t forget to look at as many pictures as possible. They, too, are instructive.
Great pictures and another point of view can be found at Mullings by Richard Galen. A different kind of balance by an American Republican who put himself in harm’s way (4 months beginning in November) for the US Government. He’s a bit too much of a cheerleader for military types, the CPA, and the present Administration for my taste, but the photos are interesting. It’s published by a group calling itself Campaign Solutions, so that should give you a clue.
Reality vs Ideology
Reality vs Ideology
Weisman notes the similarities between the occupations of Germany and Japan that were forced to adapt to changed circumstances and world events such as the threat of Communist takeovers and the Cold War from the original ideas of punishing the countries for the damages they had wrought on the world.
The original plan for Germany included an idea to make it a pastoral only country in order to prevent a resurgence of Nazism. The Cold War realities of conflict with the USSR forced the end of that idea. Japan was re-militarized after the beginning of the Korean War. In both cases practical considerations ended up changing the outcomes of the occupations.
The artlcle pretty much cuts the legs out from under the Democrats who’ve been whining about the lack of a plan for post war Iraq. They are still right to criticize the Administration for attacking a country that was no real threat to the US for either terrorism or weapons of mass destruction, and for making shaky intelligence appear to support their morally and legally unjustifiable but ideologically predetermined policy of preemptive war. But as far as I can tell, the Democrats have no plan for Iraq’s future, either, and it seems to me that in order to be credible they need to come up with better ideas than just to bug out. That would only compound the mistakes already made.
Sunday, January 18, 2004
Jeffrey Record’s Report
Thoughts on this report, Bounding the Global War on Terrorism . published in December 2003 by the Strategic Studies Institute. A military critique of Bush Administration policy and action in Iraq.
“JEFFREY RECORD joined the Strategic Studies Institute in
August 2003 as Visiting Research Professor. He is a professor in
the Department of Strategy and International Security at the US
Air Force’s Air War College in Montgomery, Alabama. He is the
author of six books and a dozen monographs, including: Making
War, Thinking History: Munich, Vietnam, and Presidential Uses of Force
from Korea to Kosovo; Revising US Military Strategy: Tailoring Means
to Ends; Beyond Military Reform; Hollow Victory, A Contrary View of
the Gulf War; War The Wrong War, Why We Lost in Vietnam; and Failed
States and Casualty Phobia, Implications for U.S. Force Structure and
Technology Choices…”
The above quoted from the blurb about Dr. Record at the beginning of the report. It is a long report, 52 pages of analysis plus 10 pages of footnotes, but it is available for download in pdf format so it can be read at leisure. It will be said that Dr. Record supports the so-called “liberal” line as well as the other disaffected generals who have voiced their opinions and criticisms of the war by calling it a distraction from the Al-Qaeda problem. Republicans will try to dismiss its importance and may well try to smear the writer as they did Ambassador Wilson. However, to my mind, it clearly and concisely points out the appalling stupidity of the Bush Administration in leading us into Iraq. It is a report that as many as possible should read before trying to come up with a reasonable program of what do now that we are there and facing a growing guerrilla movement. Harping on what cannot be changed, as so many Democrats do doesn’t seem useful now that we’re in it up to our necks, even though they have the story of this disaster straight.
What Democrats especially need to come up with now is an alternative plan for Iraq that inspires the confidence of Iraqis, Americans, and the rest of the world with trust in a plan that meets the Iraqi idea of what kind of a state they will now be with a government that will, with help, be able to restore order, economic growth, and political stability. Democrats need to tell the American people the truth: that our preemptive attack on Iraq has made the entire region more unstable than it was before, and that we must let real homegrown Iraqis, not an imposed Governing Council, now build their own future, whether or not we like the result. We need a Clinton-type practical, realistic think tank to come up with something that might just work. This should be a fully funded nation-building program in which regional and European powers have a say as well as a contribution to make, and the United Nations can use its vast experience and expertise in safety. Is it too late?
Every Democratic politician needs to stand up and shout “Wake Up America! You’ve been mislead and lied to by a bunch of playground bullies who’ve gotten you into a colossal mess with friend and foe alike. Wake up and care about what your country is doing to those weaker and culturally different from us.
——————————————-
It was unrealistic to promise some sort of sovereignty by July 1, 2004 that is unrepresentative and unelected since general elections can’t be held by then, but that seems to be the Bush pattern: Promise anything so you can’t be accused of a lack of vision, but never produce the actions necessary to make the promises real. The easy rebuilding, the easy transition to civil democratic rule and a market economy to be done in a year or two without the boots on the ground?! Promises, promises… unkept, underfunded, undermanned. No wonder so many have become cynical and depressed.
The fact that the Iraq Governing Council has abolished the Iraqi Civil Code in favor of Shari’a Law governing women and families has received little attention here, but should because this is the kind of slide towards fundamentalist Islamic government that the shia want, but the US has said it wouldn’t accept. Will all the talk of rights for Iraqi women become more of the unkept promises as Bush tries to come to some sort of agreement with the Ayatollah Sistani?
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The Shari’a may not be the final word on the subject. It depends on which blog you’re reading at the moment.
Iraqi Blogs
I’ve been reading Healing Iraq and realize just how uninformed we are here in the USA by our press and media. It’s depressing to think that there may well be a civil war in Iraq after July 1 because of the competing power grabs by the presently strongest factions, the Shia and the Kurds, and the resentment of other groups at the current attempts to manipulate the CPA. The comment posted January 14 is revealing, at least to me, in that it shows how much many Sunnis were willing to turn over their country and did not resist the invasion because they too suffered under Saddam and wanted the dictator gone. Add to that our apparent inability to take advantage of the opportunity given by the lack of resistance to interact with tribal leaders and gain their cooperation, and our blunders in the dismissal of the Iraqi Army and all the government workers, and what we see now is a recipe for division and possible eventual civil war, not a stable, democratic example for the rest of the Middle East to follow. Depressing.
Another point of view on Al-Sistani, the Shiite ayatollah who has caused so much controversy lately in the entry of January 15 on Iraq At A Glance. Our press tends to look at such figures as monolithic in their influence over an entire region, but they only control the crowd of less well educated which capture the photo headlines.
For balance to blogs like <a href="http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/”>Baghdad Burning , and Where’s Raed? have a look at Iraq & Iraqis . When you read these, you get an idea of the variety of opinion in Iraq itself which should give Americans particularly a better perspective on what is really happening. Don’t forget to look at as many pictures as possible. They, too, are instructive.
Great pictures and another point of view can be found at Mullings by Richard Galen. A different kind of balance by an American Republican who put himself in harm’s way (4 months beginning in November) for the US Government. He’s a bit too much of a cheerleader for military types, the CPA, and the present Administration for my taste, but the photos are interesting. It’s published by a group calling itself Campaign Solutions, so that should give you a clue.
Saturday, January 17, 2004
Commentary
I’ve posted a lot lately, but didn’t write most of it myself. Now, maybe it’s my turn again.
The Orange Alert has been reduced to Yellow. Lots of state governments, localities, and cities can finally stop spending all that useless money to make us safe from really bad intelligence. What was thought be real threats turned out to be nothing more than the result of the government’s overheated imagination ruled by fear and paranoia. One more time we have irritated many of our friends, especially with the new requirements for fingerprints and photos for visitors from some other countries, and accomplished nothing. Our much vaunted “intelligence” is a bad joke as is the department of Homeland Security. The latter name itself is stupid and tasteless, and it rings in the ears of many of my generation with unwelcome echoes of the Third Reich. The only chance for security is good reliable human intelligence and police work that cooperates with other countries while keeping a low profile. Shouting about alerts may deter bombers for awhile, but only until they figure where the holes in our vaunted security are.
Ousted former Treasury Secretary O’Neill, in a new book (The Price of Loyalty) to appear soon has called Bush the “blind man in a roomful of deaf people” which has connotations with some of my earlier thoughts about this President not being in real control of his own presidency. He raises money, spouts sales pitches for whatever is the current Idea, and lets his handlers wreak havoc on our nation’s economy, civil rights, social programs, education, and environment. All in the name of favors for his business pals. I used to think that Chaney was in charge, but now I have a feeling that no one is. Internationally, things seem to be going Powell’s way with India and Pakistan starting to dialogue instead of shooting, Libya giving up its WMD, Iran letting in IAEA inspectors, and Korea making noises about easing it’s stance on continuing its nuclear programs and letting in a group of 5 non governmental American inspectors to check out its nuclear plant, but who knows how long this will last. O’Neil also is also reported to say that the Iraq war was planned in advance of 9/11/2001. He’s not the first to make this charge, but it rings true even if the plan was on the shelf until 9/11 prompted its active push.
The New York Times has an editorial today which finally catches up to idea that there were no threatening WMD, and no nuclear program to speak of in Iraq. Some of us knew this back in 2002 when they first started shouting about the need for war, and constantly repeated the same lies.
Things there still seem pretty awful in parts of the country. We evidently succeeded in killing 2 policemen in Kirkuk and wounding others. Great way to win hearts and minds! The Kurds are saying they want a federalist state they can finally call Kurdistan, and if they succeed the country we know as Iraq may cease to exist again.
Saturday, January 10, 2004
More blog diaries from Iraq
These are by the same woman as before.
“it is five in the evening.
Electricity just came back, it has been off since five in the morning. I wonder always how families who do not own an electricity generator or have a subscription with a neighborhood one manage washing their clothes or heating their houses since the alternatives are also scarce in the markets. Kerosene and cooking gas are almost totally unavailable on the market and if you find them they are expansive. And when it comes to gasoline, the lines in front of gas stations are so long they go on for kilometers and are amazing and funny.
Life feels harsh and gloomy. Before the war we were for years under sanctions and we got used slowly to the situation. How to survive and manage in our reality. And although we were cut off from the rest of the world (no sat TV, no communication and no internet) everything was banned, prohibited or very regulated, but we were happier than we are now.
I do not know exactly why, but we were like a family living its troubles and secrets, the good ones and the bad ones, in a house that had closed doors and windows. The people abroad would wonder about us, some like us some hate us but we didn’t care much because like many other people each one of us was living his life with its infinite details and sorrows, and having ambitions for a better tomorrow.
And Today, the doors have been pulled out, noise and chaos rule the big house and the people who live in are killing each other, they are stealing from each other and hurting each other. I ask myself where did all this hate hide for so long?
And then a lot of strangers came, looking at us, a few want to help but many more want harm for their own announced or hidden reasons. It doesn’t matter, the result stays the same.”“How do I start my day? I driver comes to drive me to my work place since I was denied the driving of my own car, it stands there covered in the garage since almost 6 months because of all the incidents.
On my way I go thru the airport highway where all the trees have been cut down for fear of people hiding amongst them attacking the American forces the road looks sad and deserted now, then suddenly speeding convoys of Humvees go by the end of the convoy is an open car with American soldiers standing pointing their rifles at our civilian cars, afraid of a terrorist act!
I tell the driver to slow down and to try to stay away from them as good as he can, just so that we do not become the victims of a stray bullet coming out of the gun of a soldier who came to liberate Iraq. “
This is the kind of information that average people in America do not hear or see. It is certainly not anywhere in the media that I have heard, read or seen. Some of it is heartbreaking.
Her son:
“we were having a simple life..where the basic life needs are available and cheap..where security is not an issue..we used to drive back home at 3 am and feel safe..we lived a life where we didnt have the right to say something about poletics..thats true..and where people were killed for cursing Saddam..thats true..but..at least we had a life..we could leave our places not worrying about the possibiliy of me not taking the insult of an american soldier who insult people on check points and do something stupid…am afraid that “they” would kill me by mistake..am afraid that anyone of my family could get the same thing…am afraid that they will break suddenly into my place looking for someone or something and distroy and steal everythingn in the process..am afraid..to critisize the americans..cause Bramer actually made a law for that saying that any kind of inflaming feeling against the ocupation will be considered as an attack or something..am afraid to go back home..cause i know that there would be no electricity and that it will be dark and cold..so blue.
believe it ot not guys,,before you we had a life..a slow motion low-teck life? thats true..thanks to *you* we had a life,,,but now…..we dont. “
and again,
“…what if somehow..Lets say Russia occupied your country (which “happens” to be a really rich country with oil and other resources) and actually destroyed the whole country..Killed civilians..Used cluster bombs..Chemical weapons(believe it or not..I have the pictures of the dead bodies)..Destroyed houses..Caused the looting of the whole governmental system..The ministries..All the police stations and fire departments..Airports..Whatever you think..And after that..They make a new TV and newspaper and radio station and start telling you how happy you should be and how grateful you must be for them for liberating you..And a while after..They put the pictures of your country president (doenst matter if you hate him or not) on TV with people playing with his face….Now take a moment..Close your eyes..Look through the window..And imagine that everything you c is destroyed..Every place you love is either bombed or looted..Everyone you love is probably dead or injured..And add to that a vey cold weather..No electricity..No petrol..Now open your eyes and tell me…Does it really matte if the soldiers or their families are kind people? “
Good question!
Blogs
I discover blogs by Iraqis.
I’ve been reading blogs by Iraqis trying to survive in Baghdad. These are personal thoughts and diaries of fairly well off working middle class people who think deeply about their country, what has happened to it, and to their lives. Much of their predicament can be laid at the door of a careless, callous and selfish American government.
Here are excerpts from a mother’s writing. I am not giving her name because I’m afraid of causing her and/or her family trouble, but you can read for yourself here. They live in Baghdad. We in America need to educate ourselves about what happens when a self-righteous, stubborn Administration goes off on a disastrous tangent.
“The general situation here is frustrating. No new projects giving work to the jobless, nor a visible reconstruction movement encouraging people to contribute and giving them hope after all the pain and sorrow they have seen during and after the war… December 23.2003”
“I was born in Baghdad and lived in it for a long time. I left this city and came back to it after 15 years. I left her in 1976 after I graduated from college and got married and came back to her after the first Gulf war with my husband and three kids…
When I returned to Baghdad I found that the people, young, old, men and women have become Baathists, willingly or against their will…
“I saw people wrong each other, the strong eating the weak.
“Even the weak don’t stop from abusing his situation to get something out of someone who is weaker than their self or is a good hearted fool…” I am confused, have these people been corrupted by saddam or were they like this always and there is no way to deal with them?
I am depressed and have a headache. December 12, 2003″